Toward the end of his 2016 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump asserted that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and still not lose voters. He is currently testing his luck. On July 7, 2025, the Federal Bureau of Investigation effectively ended its investigation into disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Trump applauded the decision, wondering aloud why anyone even cared about Epstein in the first place.
The Make America Great Again movement is unusually divided on the administration’s handling of Epstein. The first fracture in Trump’s movement came from former FOX News host Tucker Carlson. The massively popular podcaster mocked the idea that Epstein acted alone before publicly warning the president against accepting the Department of Justice’s findings. Leading conservative voices — Candace Owens, Matt Walsh and General Mike Flynn, to name a few — released their own statements of discontent. Despite Trump’s ironclad grip over the Republican party, this particular issue tests the limits of his political stardom.
MAGA’s obsession with Jeffrey Epstein cannot be overstated. FBI Director Kash Patel and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino both rose to prominence in part because of their assertions that Epstein was behind an operation to blackmail government officials. On the campaign trail, the president and vice president both promised to release files pertaining to the Epstein case, lambasting former President Joe Biden for his refusal to do the same.
Suddenly deciding that Epstein is irrelevant and not worth further investigation is an unprecedented level of contradiction, even from a hypocrite like Trump. It’s as if he were to declare his support for illegal immigration or swear his allegiance to former rival and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Providing transparency around Epstein was not a policy item written in fine print on a campaign memo — it was one of the administration’s utmost promises.
As a result, Trump’s subsequent actions — releasing a doctored video outside Epstein’s cell and relocating co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell to a minimum security prison — repositioned Trump in the eyes of many of his voters. Far from being the repeatedly victimized enemy of the Deep State, he is now doing its bidding.
That said, Trump still may be untouchable. His supporters stood by him through two impeachments, 88 criminal charges and countless debunked claims of voter fraud. All for a president whose signature legislative achievement consists of tax cuts to the wealthy, financed by savage cuts to social services. MAGA’s loyalty to Trump has few parallels across American history. Still, this time is different.
It’s different because Epstein is central to MAGA’s theory of politics. He was a globe-trotting billionaire deeply ingrained within elite political circles. Meanwhile, he maintained a global sex trafficking network that existed above legal accountability. From Pizzagate to QAnon, the idea of a small group of political and financial elites sexually exploiting minors is fundamental to MAGA’s worldview. Trump’s reversal on Epstein constitutes a betrayal of his movement’s most intimate convictions.
While MAGA is often referred to as a personality cult built around a charismatic politician, it’s also based on a coherent ideological underpinning, at least in how it views the so-called deep state. Contrary to the Obama-era belief of politics as a vehicle for positive change, MAGA takes the position that politics obfuscates the true, nefarious inner workings of government. Epstein is how Washington really works, while everything else is window dressing.
Trump, then, is not supposed to be a political solution. That’s why his base didn’t revolt after the Big Beautiful Bill gutted social services popular even among Republicans. It’s not about the policies enacted, but who Trump destroys and what he uncovers. Working-class Americans, feeling voiceless in a sea of economic and demographic upheaval, elected Trump to disrupt the system, not become part of it.
By playing a pivotal role in the government’s abysmal Epstein probe, Trump demotes himself in the eyes of his voters. He is now a politician, subject to establishment beliefs and customs. Lecturing his supporters about why they shouldn’t care about Epstein makes him a particular kind of politician — one that views his position of authority as a license to scold everyday Americans asking entirely legitimate questions.
This could mark the beginning of the end for MAGA, or it might not. The question of post-Trump conservatism is as interesting as it is unclear. What we do know is that MAGA is reaching a breaking point on a number of issues, with Epstein batting leadoff. Accordingly, Democrats are waking up and demanding answers of their own. Whether they can go back to being the party of government skepticism is another fascinating question.
As for Trump, his approval rating is plummeting. That’s nothing new, and certainly does not sound the administration’s death knell. However, we are witnessing a divergence between a man and his movement. If Trump shot people on Fifth Avenue who knows what would happen — it’s in his interest not to find out.
Jack Verrill is an Opinion Analyst writing about national security, the economy and domestic politics. He can be reached at jverrill@umich.edu.
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