What to Watch For: Ohio State

Well, this is it. The game that each and every Michigan Wolverine — and Ohio State Buckeye — has circled on their calendars all season. The game that makes or breaks seasons, makes or breaks careers, makes or breaks legacies. The Game.

In a new era of Big Ten and college football, this weekend’s game doesn’t quite carry the same implications as it has the past few years. It’s no longer a must-win to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship, given the dissolution of conference divisions, and the 12-team playoff expands opportunities for the losing side. Along with structural changes, the stakes have shifted this season purely due to each team’s starkly different circumstances.

For the 6-5, unranked Wolverines, winning The Game wouldn’t significantly change their postseason trajectory. Michigan would end up in a slightly better bowl game, but the Wolverines have already knocked themselves out of Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff contention.

For the 10-1, second-ranked Buckeyes, winning The Game could make a big difference with regard to their postseason hopes. Depending on how everything else shakes out, Ohio State might still earn a playoff spot even with a loss to Michigan. However, the Buckeyes more than likely wouldn’t make the Big Ten Championship game if they lose this weekend, significantly complicating their path to the playoff. If they win, a conference championship berth is guaranteed and a playoff spot is all but cemented.

So the tangible impacts of this weekend’s clash in Columbus differ greatly between the teams. But for both sides, the emotions and intangibles haven’t changed at all. Regardless of postseason outcomes, winning The Game brings elusive, expansive and simply inimitable bragging rights. It’s often the difference between a successful and unsuccessful season, no matter what happens in the games around it.

In this type of rivalry game, there really isn’t anything not worth watching for. As Michigan coach Sherrone Moore said Monday, “all bets are off.” There are certain storylines primed to be especially important this year, though, so let’s walk through three of them:

Who wins the rushing battle?

The Wolverines’ offensive identity largely centers around their run game, whereas Ohio State is more dangerous through the air. Regardless, trench play will likely be a big determinant of success this Saturday.

“I think the biggest piece of this game is the rushing battle,” Moore said Monday. “And I think you’ve seen that every year, the team that wins the rushing battle wins the game. … So that’s got to be an emphasis for us to do.”

Michigan is going to need huge performances from its running back room if it wants to keep pace with the Buckeyes’ offensive production. Can senior running back Donovan Edwards rekindle his reputation as “Big Game Don”? Will graduate running back Kalel Mullings earn as many carries as he did early this season, and can he make the most of them?

The Wolverines’ offensive line has struggled to find consistency all year, plagued by one-man breakdowns and little mistakes. This weekend, Michigan simply has no room for error in the trenches. 

The Buckeyes’ defensive line showed out last weekend against Indiana, finishing the game with five total sacks and eight tackles for loss. It’ll be no easy task for the Wolverines to protect senior quarterback Davis Warren, but they’ve had the entire season to gel. They need to show improvement on Saturday — or else their offense will spend most of the game on the sidelines.

Michigan’s D-line vs. Ohio State’s depleted O-line

Last week, the Buckeyes lost their second starting offensive lineman to a season-ending injury. Star center Seth McLaughlin suffered a torn Achilles in practice, a few weeks after left tackle Josh Simmons went down with a knee injury.

Against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s reshuffled offensive line held up well enough, particularly in pass protection. It didn’t allow any sacks nor hurries, but it also didn’t consistently win the line of scrimmage. The Buckeyes finished with just 115 total rushing yards, and they opted against running a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 from Indiana’s 2-yard line. Especially in key short-yardage situations, the losses of McLaughlin and Simmons could become game-changing.

And it shouldn’t be understated that the Wolverines’ defensive front is probably their biggest strength. Junior defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are both projected first-round draft picks. Senior edge rusher Josaiah Stewart leads Michigan with 8.5 sacks, and junior edge rusher Derrick Moore consistently beats opposing offensive linemen. Michigan has significant depth in the position group, too, with players like senior edge rusher TJ Guy and senior defensive lineman Rayshaun Benny making their presence felt throughout this season.

Look out for whether the Wolverines can consistently overpower Ohio State’s depleted offensive line. Michigan should be able to slow down the run, but disrupting the passing game could be the Wolverines’ key to success on defense.

The Buckeyes boast one of the best receiving corps in the nation, and quarterback Will Howard is more than capable of making tough throws. Michigan’s secondary, on the other hand, is one of its weaknesses, especially if it’s without junior cornerback Will Johnson. If Howard has time, chances are he’ll have an open man. So if the Wolverines want to challenge Ohio State’s offensive game plan and limit explosive plays, it’ll likely have to come from getting pressure on the quarterback.

Can Davis Warren do enough?

When Warren won back the starting job earlier this season, the messaging he shared from his coaches was that he didn’t need to be a superhero. He had to stop forcing the ball in attempts to make a big play, instead focusing on just doing his individual part and trusting his teammates. Warren is carrying that mindset into this weekend, working toward controlling his emotions and just trying to execute whatever his coaches draw up.

“That’s an easy way to lose the football game — to not be emotionally stable,” Warren said Monday. “I think that’s something that (offensive coordinator Kirk) Campbell stresses, when he talks about just doing your one-11th. You don’t have to do any more. You don’t have to be a superhero. You’re at Michigan for a reason. You’re starting, you’re playing at Michigan for a reason. With your talents and abilities and with proper preparation and all the resources here to help you, you’re more than capable of being a great football player and winning football games here as a part of a team.”

So the question becomes: Can Warren effectively do his one-11th, and will that be enough? 

Chances are Warren won’t be tasked with throwing risky deep balls or putting the offense on his shoulders. But as the de facto leader whenever the Wolverines have the ball, the position comes with tons of inherent responsibility. If Warren can do his job just well enough and Michigan can get its ground game rolling, perhaps the Wolverines can stir up offensive production. 

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Ohio State is a three-score favorite over Michigan this weekend, and the rivals seem miles apart in team strength and execution. Compared to the past three years, this season provides the Buckeyes by far their best chance of returning to the rivalry win column.

But it’s The Game, after all, and you can never predict what happens in a rivalry environment. As the Wolverines attempt to hand Ohio State coach Ryan Day and the Buckeyes their fourth-straight rivalry loss in dramatic upset fashion, look out for these key storylines.

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