When first year head coaches Sherrone Moore and Curt Cignetti took over, their respective programs were at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Moore’s Michigan squad was coming off winning the National Championship while Cignetti’s Indiana team was coming off a 3-9 record and last-place finish in the Big Ten.
To say a lot has changed since then is an understatement. The Wolverines are a middle of the pack Big Ten team, struggling to find consistency all across the board. And the eighth-ranked Hoosiers have defied all expectations with an undefeated record and well-rounded team.
Ahead of the season, hardly anyone would have predicted Michigan to lose to Indiana, but this weekend, the Wolverines are two-score underdogs. So if the reigning champions want to beat the Hoosiers, they will have to pull off an unexpected upset.
To have a fighting chance, Michigan will have to clean up the issues that have plagued it on both sides of the ball and disrupt Indiana’s sound operation. The tables have turned, and this Saturday’s contest won’t look like those of year’s past. So to help you out, here’s what to watch for:
Weakness versus strength: Can the Wolverines’ defense stop the Hoosiers on third down?
Indiana’s 50.5% third-down conversion percentage ranks seventh in the country, and Michigan’s third-down defense ranks 109th. One of the strongest parts of the Hoosiers’ offense will go head-to-head with one of the weakest parts of the Wolverines’ defense, which could spell trouble for Michigan.
Just last week against Oregon — the No. 2 team in the country in third down conversion percentage — Michigan allowed the Ducks to convert on 10-of-15 third downs. The Wolverines regularly get beat over the top. For example, the Ducks turned a pass on third-and-1 into a 38-yard gain that set up a touchdown by simply throwing the ball over Michigan’s head.
Granted, the Wolverines’ secondary was riddled with injury last week as both starting cornerbacks were out. But getting off the field on third down and keeping a deteriorated lineup fresh has been a persistent issue all season for Michigan.
“We gotta execute the call that’s cued on third down when we get to that point,” graduate defensive back Markari Paige said Monday. “That’s really the main thing, the big thing for us.”
Executing those third-down calls against one of the teams that’s best at converting in those situations is a tall order, especially if the Wolverines are still without some key pieces of their secondary. But it’ll be a necessity to overcome Indiana’s potent offense.
Can Michigan reestablish its running game?
Third downs on the other side of the ball haven’t gone so well for the Wolverines either. A big reason why is because they fail to make headway on first and second down, setting themselves up with difficult third-and-long situations.
“You got to be better on first down,” Moore said Monday. “You got to get more positive gains on first down.”
Michigan’s running game has been its bread and butter on offense through most of the season, but it has been struggling in recent weeks. As a result, a number of the Wolverines’ first- and second-down runs have picked up very little, or worse, lost yardage.
Graduate running back Kalel Mullings established himself early on as a physical, downhill runner, gaining yards after contact nearly every time he touched the ball. He’s Michigan’s touchdown leader with seven and has accumulated a team-leading 710 rushing yards. However, in his last two games, he’s gained just 18 and 16 yards with no touchdowns.
When asked about Mullings’ recent struggles, Moore once again emphasized the need to improve on first and second down.
“On normal downs, you got to be better,” Moore said. “When there’s somebody right in (Mullings’) face right now, it’s hard to make the guy miss. He did a really good job of getting the ball back to a line of scrimmage if we needed him to and progressing. So for us, we just got to be better as a team.”
Whether it’s better blocking up front, the running backs finding the right gaps or something else entirely, the Wolverines will need to reignite their running game and rebalance their offense to have a chance against the Hoosiers.
Can Michigan play a complete 60 minutes?
In all of the Wolverines’ four losses, a poor start on both sides of the ball has taken them out of the game early. Against Texas and Illinois, their other mistakes, namely turnovers and inability to move the ball on offense, overshadowed that poor start, but it happened all the same.
Against Washington, Michigan’s offense was stagnant early while its defense allowed two touchdowns. The Wolverines improved on both sides of the ball to take the lead in the third quarter, but two late turnovers sealed the game for the Huskies.
This past week against Oregon, Michigan once again started slow on offense, and its defense allowed the Ducks to score 21 points in the second quarter alone. By the time the Wolverines adjusted in the second half, it was too little, too late.
“I think you saw two different halves,” Moore said of his team’s performance against Oregon. “You saw the first half where we didn’t feel like there was enough energy, enough excitement. I thought the guys were prepared and mentally ready to play, but just didn’t execute. But the second half, I felt like it came out. But what you saw was a test of what the culture is. Guys never quit. Our players kept fighting all the way to the end.”
Michigan will need to replicate that fight against Indiana — but for all 60 minutes this time. Starting slow, especially, has been the Wolverines’ downfall thus far, so they need to ensure they don’t dig themselves too deep a hole against the Hoosiers.
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Michigan and Indiana have both veered from their respective preseason expectations, but they’ve done so in opposite directions. Facing a powerful, well-rounded Hoosiers team, the Wolverines have their work cut out for them. They’ll need to find quick fixes for some of their season-long struggles in order to leave Bloomington with a win.
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