On the surface, the Michigan men’s basketball team’s offense has been electrifying, scoring 92 and 96 points against Oakland and Toledo, respectively. And it’s true, the offense has been electric; its fast-paced, get-it-and-go philosophy presents a stark contrast to Wolverines teams of the past few seasons. But underneath the scoring outbursts, high turnover rates hint at the potential struggles Michigan may encounter once it faces higher-tier competition.
These errors aren’t too much of a surprise, though. Even before the Wolverines stepped onto the floor of Little Caesars Arena for their first exhibition, Michigan coach Dusty May warned of potential issues with ball security.
“When you can shoot it well and you can rebound it, the Achilles’ heel is turning it over,” May said Oct. 18. “We have been a little bit loose with the basketball, but that’s to be expected when we play at the pace we are every day.”
To May’s point, there is evidence that the cause of the turnovers isn’t a product of a product of personnel, rather scheme: The turnovers are spread out fairly evenly across all players. Against the Golden Grizzlies, the Wolverines turned the ball over 14 times, but no player accumulated more than three on their own. Similarly, they turned it over 15 times against the Rockets, and again, no single player had more than three.
If there is a silver lining to these turnovers, it’s that they aren’t all live-ball. Live-ball turnovers are exponentially more likely to result in a bucket for the opponent — they give easy numbers in transition and can change the ever-important momentum of the game in the blink of an eye. Instead, many of the Wolverines’ giveaways have been dead-ball turnovers — travels, charges, passes out of bounds. While these certainly aren’t ideal, they allow Michigan to at least set back up in a defense.
This idea explains why their opponents haven’t really burnt the Wolverines for their mishaps. Oakland had just six points off of the 14 turnovers while the Rockets had 15. If Michigan keeps up this trend, though, it’s going to get burnt sooner rather than later.
“I think there were a couple questionable decisions,” May said postgame after beating Toledo. “But I do think the pace we’re playing at — all of our players didn’t play like this in the past.”
Indeed, a new team working within a foreign system is bound to have its initial struggles. With players entering the new-look Wolverines from different teams with different schemes, an adjustment period is to be expected. But still, making a habit of turning the ball over 14 or 15 times will never end in a successful season.
Last year, in a historically bad season, Michigan led the Big Ten in turnovers per game with 12.9. This year’s squad under a new coaching regime is hoping to be the antithesis of last year’s Wolverines. But turning the ball over at a similar or higher clip isn’t conducive to differentiating performance.
In fairness, exhibition games are designed for working out the kinks. And 15 turnovers while running a fast-paced offense is more palatable than 12 while moving slow. Still, though, May isn’t afraid to rework his scheme to match his personnel if the problem persists. But he’ll allow his players some leeway to learn a new system first.
“If (turnovers are) still an issue (after) five or 10 games, then we might have to change some things schematically,” May said Oct. 18. “But for the most part, that’s to be expected. And so it’s just we have to be patient with that and make sure that they’re learning through film and learning from those mistakes.”
Taking exhibition stats at face value can often be a dangerous game, especially when analyzing a team with 11 new faces and a starting five with zero players who donned the maize and blue one year ago. But with May’s style and pace, turnovers and their adverse effects will certainly be something May keeps an eye on as the regular season begins.
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