UMich survey finds increase in young, middle-class Detroit residents planning to vote after Biden’s endorsement of Harris

Editor’s Note: Alec Hughes is a former Daily staffer. Hughes did not contribute to the reporting of this article.

In a recent report published by the Detroit Metro Area Communities Study, researchers at the University of Michigan found that the percentage of eligible Detroit residents planning to vote in November increased after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The issue brief, released at the beginning of October, revealed an increase from 70% to 77% of surveyed Detroiters who said they would “definitely vote” in the election.

DMACS began in 2016 as a method of gathering consistent data from Detroit residents about their thoughts on the government, city decisions, transportation and other topics. In an email to The Michigan Daily, Mara Ostfeld, an assistant research scientist at the Ford School of Public Policy and a faculty lead for DMACS, wrote that the survey attempts to uplift the opinions of Detroiters who find themselves underrepresented by current policies.

“The goal of DMACS is to amplify the voices and goals of Detroiters in the policy making process,” Ostfeld wrote. “Too often, U.S. policy disproportionately reflects the interests of those who have more resources. We seek to reduce that disparity by amplifying the interests of Detroiters and working to ensure they reach those in a wide range of influential positions.”

The October issue brief compared the changing percentage of definite voters to three events: the presidential debate between Biden and former President Donald Trump on June 27, the first assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 and Biden’s endorsement of Harris on July 21. 

DMACS researchers found no significant relationship between Detroiters’ plans to vote and either the debate or the assassination attempt. Ostfeld wrote that this may have been due to strong opinions on Trump that remained unchanging and widespread prior coverage of Biden’s health.

“Feelings toward Trump are pretty well cemented amongst our electorate,” Ostfeld wrote. “I was more surprised that Biden’s debate performance did not have more of an effect. My instinct is that the stability in voter engagement after the debate was partially due to the strength of attitudes toward Trump. … The other factor is that concerns about Biden’s health were prominently featured in news for months, so his debate performance was not necessarily providing new information, but confirming concerns that many Americans already had.”

When Biden exited the presidential race to publicly back Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, however, two demographic groups had notable increases in their desire to vote: young residents and middle-income households.

Thirty-eight percent of Detroit residents between the ages of 18 and 34 said they would definitely vote prior to the switch to Harris’ campaign, which rose to 57% after the change. Sixty-one percent of moderate-income residents that earn between $30,000 and $59,999 a year said they would definitely vote, which increased to 80% after the endorsement.

LSA senior Alec Hughes, co-chair of the University’s chapter of College Democrats, told The Daily he believed Harris’ relative youth and more active campaigning style may have contributed to the increase in eligible young voters planning to vote. 

“Before (Biden) dropped out, there was a lot of concern about his age, his ability to carry on another term,” Hughes said. “With young voters being on the other end of the age spectrum, I think they’re the ones that recognize it the most. So I would say making the transition from the Biden ticket to the Harris ticket was just transitioning from someone who’s a little less active, a little older, to someone who’s a lot more energetic and very motivating on the campaign trail.”

Hughes also said the Harris campaign’s social media presence may also have impacted younger voters.

“I think a lot of political campaigns struggle with staying on track with trends, as they change very quickly,” Hughes said. “The Harris campaign has been pretty notable for just how well they’ve been able to stick onto it. … A reason that might explain the campaign’s boost with young voters as well is just the fact that (Harris’) social media is not being run by typical career campaign people. It’s being run by young people, by Gen Z voices.”

Ostfeld wrote that other older, wealthier demographics may be less sensitive to change because they are already more likely to participate in elections.

“Generally speaking, we know that there are some Americans who tend to be more consistent voters, including Americans with more income and who are older,” Ostfeld wrote. “So there’s a bit of a ceiling effect on those higher propensity voters — they are already highly likely to vote and there is not much that can be done to increase the share of those voters that turn out.”

The report’s results were determined by data from 2,450 Detroit residents selected in a semi-random fashion. According to Celia Fan, the data manager for DMACS, the study uses an address-based sample of Detroiters that emphasizes underrepresented demographics and neighborhoods to capture the most accurate snapshot of the city as possible. In an interview with The Daily, Fan also said DMACS returns to previously-surveyed residents to gather changes in opinions over time.

“DMACS is a panel study,” Fan said. “That means we try to go back to the same respondents over time. Once someone joins our sample, we would invite them to participate in the subsequent survey. This helps us to understand the opinions of the same individuals, how they change over time, and allows us to understand the causal impacts of specific events on their opinions and experiences.”

Fan said DMACS’ survey results on Detroit residents who said they will definitely vote will likely not accurately reflect the actual voter turnout in November.

“The turnout will almost definitely be lower than what we reported here,” Fan said. “We’re not trying to predict the voter turnout, and asking people, ‘How likely will you vote?’ is kind of like asking someone, ‘How often do you go to gym?’ People tend to exaggerate that kind of number. But we just want to highlight that people have stronger intentions after Biden exited the race and endorsed Harris. So we’re not trying to predict anything. It’s just the change, that’s what we’re interested in.”

Daily Staff Reporter Marissa Corsi can be reached at macorsi@umich.edu. 

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