SportsWednesday: Illinois is a measuring stick, and that reflects poorly on Michigan

At the start of the season, when talking about the No. 24 Michigan football team’s brutal schedule, no one was referring to now-No. 22 Illinois. 

Rather, most were referring to three games: Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. Even if the Wolverines played those three teams and rounded out the schedule with nine FCS squads, it still would have been brutal. Preseason, a road clash with the originally unranked Fighting Illini wouldn’t have even made the top half of the most difficult games on the schedule, instead forecasting as a reprieve for Michigan during a season filled with high-profile, grueling contests. 

Now, days away from the game between the Wolverines and Illinois, it’s a different story. Credit where credit’s due, the Illini have exceeded expectations in the first half of the season, but they’re still just the fifth highest-ranked opponent on Michigan’s schedule. 

Yet the Wolverines have put themselves in a position where a game that should have been a reprieve is now another test added to a growing list. This Saturday’s contest will serve as a midseason measuring stick for Michigan, but only because the Wolverines failed to measure up in recent weeks. 

Because of that, whether Michigan leaves Champaign with its first road win won’t exactly shed light on how good the Wolverines are — it’ll be more telling as to where they fall in the general range of just-OK teams. 

For all intents and purposes, it’s a game that Michigan theoretically should still win. The Wolverines are favored, they’re well rested and they’ve had multiple weeks to prepare. Illinois, meanwhile, needed overtime last week to barely eke past a Purdue team without a win over an FBS opponent. Those narratives seemingly wouldn’t make Saturday’s game feel like a key test for Michigan at this point in the season, but it is. 

“We know it’s gonna be a tough battle down there,” Wolverines coach Sherrone Moore said Monday. “It’s a physical team that (Illini coach Bret Bielema) does a great job coaching.”

Moore’s words aren’t just coach-speak, or him giving props to his next opponent to avoid providing them with any additional motivation. Saturday will indeed be a tough battle for the Wolverines — one that they probably wouldn’t have expected in August or early September. 

That battle will start with containing Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer. Similar to the Illini as a whole, Altmyer isn’t the toughest signal caller that Michigan has faced or will face, but he provides a test nonetheless. Among quarterbacks on the Wolverines’ schedule, he ranks fifth in total QBR, behind Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Ohio State’s Will Howard and Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke. 

And as Michigan continues to face talented quarterbacks — like Altmyer — that test its defense, the Wolverines’ own quarterback situation looks worse in contrast. Now on their third starting quarterback, compared to each of their opponents’ one starter, Michigan is yet to figure anything out at the position. Maybe graduate Jack Tuttle will finally be the answer in his first start for the Wolverines, but it’s a bad look that Michigan has reached Week 8 with the most important position still in flux. 

So this Saturday could prove that the third time’s the charm, and Tuttle is the answer. Michigan could pass the test and set itself up a bit better for the home stretch. But it matters less whether the Wolverines actually pass the test, and more the fact that it’s even a test in the first place.

Even if Michigan wins, its ceiling still looks like 8-4 with the Ducks and the Buckeyes looming. Not terrible, but nowhere near the Wolverines’ preseason goals. If Michigan loses, a 6-6 finish seems overwhelmingly likely, as beating the Hoosiers on the road won’t be any easier. 

An 8-4 record represents a distinctly better season than a 6-6 record does, so Saturday’s game can define the trajectory of the rest of the season for the Wolverines. It would be Michigan’s signature win at the moment too, given that the win over Southern California has since lost its luster. But the prevailing feeling from both of those facts is disappointment in the season to date, rather than hope for the rest of it. 

Looking at the schedule at the start of the season, Oregon and Ohio State should have been the key second-half tests for the Wolverines. Now, both games are very probable losses, likely with Michigan as touchdown underdogs or more.

And instead of the three top-five teams on the Wolverines’ schedule serving as those key measuring sticks, Illinois is taking that position. No matter what the outcome of the game is, that’s not good for Michigan.

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