UMich professors and students talk Trump conviction, presidential election

A Manhattan jury convicted former President Donald Trump, presumptive Republican presidential nominee, on all 34 felony charges for a hush-money scheme aimed at influencing the 2016 presidential election May 30. In the historic trial, Trump was charged with making illegal payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels, who alleged they had sex.

As the first former U.S. president convicted of felony crimes, the conviction poses an unprecedented legal challenge for Trump. His attorneys plan to appeal the verdict while he continues campaigning, although he faces three additional felony indictments in Florida, Georgia and Washington, D.C. The Manhattan District Attorney’s office has not indicated whether they will push for jail time.

Despite the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee beginning July 15, where Trump is anticipated to become the Republican nominee, the judge scheduled his sentencing for July 11. The Trump campaign has used the verdict as a fundraising tool, claiming the trial was unfair and politically motivated.

A Gallup poll conducted in May shows Biden and Trump tied in favorability at 46%, with Trump being perceived as more polarizing just before his conviction. A post-verdict CBS News poll reported over half of Americans believe the jury’s decision was correct. Most Democrats expressed increased confidence in the judicial system, three-quarters of Republicans expressed decreased confidence and overall sentiments across party lines showed little change, even regarding Trump’s fitness for the White House and the gravity of the crimes.

In an interview with The Michigan Daily, Charles Shipan, J. Ira and Nicki Harris Professor of Social Sciences, said Republicans face a more difficult strategy in condemning the trial as unfair to sway undecided voters without inadvertently highlighting the guilty verdict itself.

“Republicans have a tricky situation here, and they need to simultaneously rail against this decision and talk about how unfair and unjust (the trial) was,” Shipan said. “The more they do that, the more the people who are undecided and in the middle might slightly lean Trump. There’s some risk to Republicans for taking a strategy where they are drawing attention to the unfairness of the verdict because it will remind everybody of the verdict.”

Public Policy lecturer Jonathan Hanson told The Daily Republicans will aim to undermine the trial’s legitimacy, labeling it as a political prosecution to downplay the significance of nominating a convicted felon.

“From the Republican side, I think the strategy is clear,” Hanson said. “They just want to downplay the legitimacy of the trial. They’ve pretty much been uniform in their message that this is just a political prosecution and that it’s illegitimate. That’s going to be their playbook for all of this legal stuff that’s coming through. It’s really the only way they can deal with it because to take it head on, you can’t have a nominee who’s a felon.”

Shipan said he is skeptical about claims that the trial will change the political trajectory of Trump’s campaign since he already has a committed voter base. 

“You have some people saying that the trial is absolutely going to help Trump, this is going to get his base excited, get them out to vote and increase their support for him, and I don’t buy that,” Shipan said. “Those people were already going to vote for Trump. You can’t vote more intensely. I am also skeptical of people who say that this is going to be a game-changer. There have been many things in Trump’s political career that we would point to at the time and call it a game-changer.”

In an interview with The Daily, Ken Kollman, professor of political science and director of the Center for Political Studies, said Democrats will try to associate Trump with his conviction to sway undecided voters rather than attempt to erode his loyal base.

“The Democrats are going to try to connect ‘convicted felon’ to Trump’s name from here on,” Kollman said. “They’re not really trying to pry loyal Trump voters away from him. I don’t think anybody believes that. It’s not going to have much of an effect on Trump’s core base and on his loyalists. But it’s all about trying to convince people who don’t like either candidate but are inclined to vote anyway.”

Shipan said he felt Democrats should persistently remind voters of Trump’s felony status, or the verdict might lose relevance among the electorate’s moderate voter base.

“Democrats need to be extremely proactive and need to be constantly talking about the fact that the person who’s running against (Biden) is a convicted felon,” Shipan said. “To the extent that Democrats do this repeatedly and consistently and then in a concerted effort, then I think it could have an effect on the people in the middle. If they don’t do that, it’s going to fade into the background like the Access Hollywood tape and the E. Jean Carroll case.”

Even as the trial unfolded, public polling has barely shifted in the presidential race. However, the conviction throws Trump into uncharted territory. A Quinnipiac University survey published May 22 found that even among Trump supporters, 6% said they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted.

Kollman said the trial itself might not directly impact voter turnout, but rather the unpopularity of both candidates might be a reason people stay home from the polls.

“My best guess is this will be a lower turnout election than in the past two elections,” Kollman said. “High turnout elections are good for the country, but we have two very unpopular candidates. Many people wish that their own party had somebody else running.” 

In an interview with The Daily, Walter Mebane, professor of political science and statistics, said many Michigan Republicans might opt out of voting or leave ballots blank rather than support Trump because of the challenge of mobilizing a small pool of persuadable voters.

“Mobilization is a huge issue because the number of persuadable voters is pretty small as a percentage,” Mebane said. “I like to think that in Michigan most Republicans who may support Trump would not be energized in favor of Trump. Probably what would happen is many of them will decide either not to vote at all or just leave that option on the ballot blank.”

The University of Michigan chapters of College Republicans and Turning Point USA did not respond to requests for comment.

LSA senior Adam Lacasse, co-chair of the University’s chapter of College Democrats and president of Michigan College Democrats, told The Daily in an interview he felt the verdict further contrasts the presumptive presidential candidates legally and ethically.

“I think the trial sets a pretty clear tone on what’s at stake this election cycle,” Lacasse said. “We have a president who trusts the process and then we have a candidate, former president, convicted of 34 felonies and who attacks the American judicial system and the Constitution.”

Lacasse said he and his organizations are focused on ensuring that young voters are provided with factual information about the voting process to prevent disinformation.

“We need to make sure that misinformation and disinformation about the voting process is not getting out into the public,” Lacasse said. “I think the biggest problem we’ve seen in the past two (elections) is just access to voter information, so that is what we’re going to be doing at College Dems at the University of Michigan, but also in the state and across the country.”

Summer News Editors Shane Baum and Andrew Baum can be reached at smbaum@umich.edu and asbaum@umich.edu.

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