Entering the final weekend of Big Ten play, the Michigan baseball team had a chance to thrust themselves into the top three seeds in the conference tournament. But after dropping two out of three games at Indiana, the Wolverines settled for the fourth seed. On Wednesday, Michigan will take on fifth-seeded Iowa in Omaha , Neb. during the first round of the tournament. The Daily’s baseball beat (Zach Goldstein, Mackenzie Mielke, Eli Trese and Grace Wright) predict the Wolverines’ fate and the outcome of the Big Ten Tournament.
How far does Michigan go?
Goldstein: Semifinals
For Michigan, it’s somewhat paradoxical how it ended up with the fourth seed in the Big Ten Tournament. When looking at how the numbers stack up to the rest of the conference, it’s not pretty. Michigan ranks quite low in many statistical categories, both at the plate and on the mound. So you might ask, why do I think the Wolverines will reach the semifinals? Surprisingly enough, the answer is the pitchers. In conference games, Michigan is second in ERA in the Big Ten at 5.11. Additionally, unlike most other teams, the Wolverines will not have to cut down its rotation. Relying on just a handful of arms plays to Michigan’s favor, as it’s something they’ve done all year. The tournament run won’t last, though, as those few pitchers can’t go forever. However, if the Wolverines can avoid an early matchup against Illinois, Michigan can make a deep run.
Mielke: Semifinals
The Michigan baseball team remained in the cluster of the top teams in the Big Ten this season, as the top spot was always within reach for many programs. Even as the final weekend sent the regular season trophy to Illinois, the tournament itself is a rather even playing field. The Wolverines have proved they have the power at the plate to win with freshman designated hitter Collin Priest and graduate outfielder Stephen Hrustich who stepped up to deliver big hits in crucial games. Michigan made itself a viable option as it dropped two of its conference series, but many losses came from its performance from the bump. With that being said, the inconsistency on the mound was costly over the season for the Wolverines, and with few arms to rely on, it won’t be easy to make a run past the semifinal point.
Trese: Semifinals
No single team has separated itself from the rest of the field this season. Entering the final weekend of play, the regular season title was still very much up for grabs. While Illinois came away with the honor, I don’t think their one-seed distinction makes them the inherent favorites, nor does Penn State’s eight-seed rule them out. Michigan has proven during conference play that when it throws its top pitchers on the mound, the Wolverines are a tough team to beat. With that being said, their pitching depth is certainly the aspect of the team that holds them back, but expect to see sophomore right-hander Kurt Barr and fifth-year left-hander Jacob Denner used much more liberally in this tournament than in the regular season. Because Wolverines coach Tracy Smith is expected to rely heavily on his best arms, I think Michigan will make a push for the semifinals but ultimately run out of steam there.
Wright: Finals
The Michigan baseball team has shown that it can win big games in clutch moments. In order to secure its ticket to the Big Ten Tournament the Wolverines had to take the series versus Purdue in week 14. After falling 0-4 in the first game of the series, Michigan responded by winning the following two matchups with offensive surges that sealed its ticket for postseason play. While things haven’t always looked pretty for the Wolverines, late in the season they have found a way to win, and I predict the same will be true for this tournament. It will likely not be a clean path to the championship game, and Michigan will probably find itself working through the losers bracket, but I believe that if the team stays healthy and competitive, they will see themselves in the final of this tournament.
Who wins the Big Ten Tournament?
Goldstein: Nebraska
There’s one common denominator for Nebraska: its pitching staff. Simply put, the Cornhuskers’ pitchers are better than the batters they face. Starting with its ace Brett Sears, Nebraska’s rotation and bullpen is deep, holding a Big Ten-best 4.37 ERA. The Cornhuskers won’t walk you, either, so free bases have been hard to come by. Nebraska won’t beat itself, instead its opponents will have to be up to the task. But as the regular season showed, that’s not easy, and the Cornhuskers won’t do your lineup any favors. Meanwhile, Nebraska is more than serviceable at the plate, with more than half of its lineup hitting above .300. Together, the Cornhuskers are a true threat to win the Big Ten, and it has all the tools to do so. Playing in Nebraska just an hour away from Lincoln doesn’t hurt, either.
Mielke: Indiana
Indiana’s offense looks to be hitting its stride as it enters the Big Ten Tournament. With three batters swinging easily with averages in the .350s, runs and hits are plentiful for the Hoosier offense. Not only are they finding success at the plate as Michigan personally felt in the 11-2 loss in the last series of the season, but the pitching depth is a major contributor to their tournament hopes. Indiana holds twelve pitchers who have all seen at least 20.1 innings of action, and that experience will be profitable without wearing down arms too quickly. If the Hoosiers’ offense continues to strike while their defense throws them, their chances are high to take home the trophy.
Trese: Indiana
Michigan got a look at Indiana’s potent offense in its last series of the year. With power laced up and down the entire offense, the Hoosiers are always in a position to put runs on the board. But it’s not just Indiana’s offense — the Hoosiers’ pitching has been consistent all season as well, boasting the fourth-lowest ERA in the Big Ten during conference play. The combination of pitching and offense makes them a tough out in a double-elimination format.
Wright: Indiana
Michigan got a taste of Indiana’s commanding offense in the final series of the regular season where the Wolverines fell to the Hoosiers 2-1. The depleted Michigan bullpen was unable to quiet the Indiana bats, specifically left fielder Devin Taylor who recorded a home run in each matchup of the series. Taylor and the rest of the offense are supported by a dependable presence on the mound. The Hoosiers have access to roughly 12 arms that will be able to easily control the mound throughout the tournament. Indiana’s offense shows no signs of slowing down as the season wears on, and coupled with its consistent pitchers, it is unlikely the Hoosiers will leave this tournament early.
Bold predictions for Michigan?
Goldstein: Someone throws a complete game for Michigan
It’s no secret that Michigan has struggled to find pitching depth this season. Both within the starting rotation and bullpen, there’s been a limited few who consistently see time on the mound against conference opponents. And if Michigan wants any chance to extend its season past this upcoming week, somebody is going to have to pitch a complete game. The Wolverines have seen pitchers go the distance before: sophomore right-handers Kurt Barr and Mitch Voit, alongside fifth-year left-hander Jacob Denner have all thrown complete games. But potentially playing five games in four days is a tall order, so it remains to be seen as to whom, if anyone, will step up and deliver a much-needed complete game in order to save other arms for later on in the week.
Mielke: Sophomore right-hander Mitch Voit returns to the mound
Voit hasn’t stepped foot on the mound since April 21. While the assumption is there is an injury further impacting him from pitching, he hasn’t let it stop him from generating power at the plate. However, the Big Ten Tournament is the perfect place for a return. Sophomore right-hander Kurt Barr and senior right-hander Chase Allen have continued to be the regular starters on the weekends with a bullpen day finishing up on Sundays. If Voit managed to come back even for one game, it would relieve Wolverine coach Tracy Smith from having to rely on young guys who have struggled to construct consistent outings. His presence has the opportunity to offer more security and possibly less pressure on Barr and Allen’s arms as Michigan makes its way through the tournament.
Trese: Michigan gets the best performance of senior right-hander Chase Allen’s season
Allen has had a volatile season. He has given the Wolverines several great outings such as his seven-inning performance against Michigan State, but he has also had his fair share of rough outings as well. His veteran experience, however, may prove to be key. In his fourth year with Michigan now, Allen has been in these big situations before. Look for Allen to remain poised on the mound and turn in an extremely solid outing when he gets the ball.
Wright: A young pitcher steps up
Two arms: sophomore right-hander Kurt Barr and fifth-year left-hander Jacob Denner. That is the depth of Michigan’s consistent bullpen at the moment. The Wolverines’ coach Tracy Smith has long preached that he needs one of his younger, more inexperienced pitchers to step up and become a competitive presence on the mound. Throughout the season Smith has tested a number of arms waiting for one to shine, and the Big Ten tournament might just be the moment one of these arms has been looking for. From the freshman class right-handers Dylan Vigue and Sachem Ramos as well as left-hander Wyatt Novara have recently received more pitches on the mound from Smith and have put up solid performances versus Long Beach State and Michigan State. Further, in their last home-game of the season versus Akron sophomore right-hander Brandon Mann started on the mound for four innings. If Michigan hopes to extend its time in this tournament, they need one or more of these arms to step up and make their presence known on the mound.
Tournament MVP?
Goldstein: Brett Sears, Nebraska
Without a doubt, Brett Sears is the best pitcher in the Big Ten. Holding a 2.05 ERA in 92.0 innings pitched — both best in the conference — Sears is lights out. He strikes out a ton of batters while walking few, and he’s the only pitcher in the Big Ten to hold a WHIP under 1.00. He’s simply better than the batters he faces, and the buck won’t stop in the Big Ten Tournament. Alongside my pick for Nebraska to win the conference, expect Sears to pitch multiple times while systematically shutting down batters.
Mielke: Joey Brenczewski, Indiana
Behind Devin Taylor, designated hitter Brenczewski has the opportunity to show out his full capability at the plate. Supporting his team with 43 RBIs on the season, the assumption is that the continuous week of play will only drive that number up. Alongside making sure his teammates score, his 54 hits in 45 games show that it is unlikely Brenczweski leaves a game without providing some damage in his at-bats. He may not be delivering the power hits like Taylor, but his reliability will be nonetheless an important factor for Indiana to win.
Trese: Devin Taylor, Indiana
Following my previous prediction that the Hoosiers win it all, I believe that their best player, sophomore left fielder Devin Taylor will take home the MVP honors. He leads the conference in home runs and is slashing a ridiculous .362/.455/1.112 on the season. I see him causing opposing pitchers a few nightmares with some timely long-balls.
Wright: Devin Taylor, Indiana
As I stated previously I think Indiana will take home the victory in this tournament and I believe it will largely be thanks to its formidable offense. And the catalyst for this potent offense comes from none other than left fielder Devin Taylor. Taylor has shown the power and positivity that he brings to the plate and this continued presence will be necessary as the Hoosiers take on the rest of the Big Ten. If they hope to dominate opponents as they have previously this season, they will need Taylor to continue to provide a power at the plate that is simply indistinguishable.
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